Subject: Exaggerated Claims About the ITER Fusion Project
Date: Tue, 16 Jun 2020 07:31:27 -0700
From: Steven B. Krivit
TO:
Delong Luo, Chair of the ITER Council, Director-General, ITER China Domestic Agency, Ministry of Science and Technology
Wei Huang, Head of Delegation of ITER Council for China, Vice Minister, Ministry of Science and Technology
Massimo Garribba, Head of Delegation of ITER Council for Europe, Acting Deputy Director-General, DG ENER, European Commission
Ravi Bhusan Grove, Head of Delegation of ITER Council for India, Member, Atomic Energy Commission
Yoshio Yamawaki, Head of Delegation of ITER Council for Japan, Senior Deputy Minister of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology
Chang-Yune Lee, Head of Delegation of ITER Council for Korea, Director-General, Space and Nuclear Energy
Igor Borovkov, Head of Delegation of ITER Council for Russian Federation, Deputy Chief of Staff of the Government Executive Office of the Russian Federation
Steve Binkley, Head of Delegation of ITER Council for United States, Principal Deputy Director of the Office of Science
CC:
Bernard Bigot, Director-General, ITER Organization
Johannes Schwemmer, Director of ITER Domestic Agency, EU
Kathy McCarthy, Director of ITER Domestic Agency, US
Ujjwal Baruah, Project Director Director of ITER Domestic Agency, India
Shishir Ddeshpande, Former Project Director of ITER Domestic Agency, India
Kijung Jung, Director of ITER Domestic Agency, Korea
Director of ITER Domestic Agency, Japan
Anatoly V. Krasilnikov, Director of ITER Domestic Agency, RF
Since at least 1993, scientists representing the nuclear fusion community have convinced members of the U.S. Congress that the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER), under construction in Southern France, is designed to produce 500 million Watts of thermal power, ten times more electrical power than the reactor is designed to consume.
This is not true.
Later, other fusion scientists convinced the European Parliament and European Commission to publish similar falsehoods about ITER. In fact, the list of organizations that have published falsehoods about ITER in the last decade is extensive.
As revealed by New Energy Times in 2017 and in a subsequent 2019 statement from the United Kingdom Atomic Energy Authority, if the ITER reactor works according to design, ITER should produce about as much fusion power as the electricity required to run the entire plant. A statement by a Japanese government fusion organization also describes the design goal accurately: “ITER is about equivalent to a zero (net) power reactor, when the plasma is burning.” A German government document uncovered by New Energy Times also reveals that the reactor’s output will be equivalent to zero net power.
The enormity of this false science claim, in terms of involved scientists, expenditure of taxpayer funds from China, the European Union, India, Japan, Korea, Russia, and the United States is unprecedented. The magnitude of the deception, involving scientists whom we hold in high esteem, makes it difficult to recognize and reconcile. Deception and fraud are ugly words that nobody in the scientific world wants to be associated with. Nevertheless, this disturbing matter is one which the fusion community, as well as the broader scientific community, must reckon with.
Much like the perpetual motion frauds from a century ago, which employed hidden mechanical devices to supply power, scientists promoting ITER have hidden the reactor’s expected input power through specific language, undisclosed terminology, and deceit.
“The Dark Side of ITER,” published on June 15, 2020, by Steven B. Krivit, editor of New Energy Times, explains what happened.
—
Steven B. Krivit
Publisher and Senior Editor, New Energy Times
369-B Third Street | Suite 556 | San Rafael, California | USA 94901
37. ITER Council Notified of Exaggerated Claims was last modified: December 6th, 2020 by sbkrivit
Since at least 1993, scientists representing the nuclear fusion community have convinced members of the U.S. Congress that the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER), under construction in Southern France, is designed to produce 500 million Watts of thermal power, ten times more electrical power than the reactor is designed to consume.
This is not true.
Later, other fusion scientists convinced the European Parliament and European Commission to publish similar falsehoods about ITER. In fact, the list of organizations that have, as a result of the fusion scientists’ claims, inadvertently published falsehoods about ITER in the last decade is extensive.
The Facts
As revealed by New Energy Times in 2017 and in a subsequent 2019 statement from the United Kingdom Atomic Energy Authority, if the ITER reactor works according to design, the ITER reactor should produce about as much power from fusion as the electricity required to operate the entire device. A statement by a Japanese government fusion organization also describes the expected overall device power balance accurately: “ITER is about equivalent to a zero (net) power reactor, when the plasma is burning.” A German government document uncovered by New Energy Times also reveals that the reactor’s overall output will be equivalent to zero net power.
The actual design goal for the ITER reactor is to create a plasma of 500 megawatts (thermal) for around twenty minutes while 50 megawatts of thermal power are injected into the tokamak, resulting in a ten-fold gain of plasma heating power, not reactor power.
The enormity of this false science claim, in terms of involved scientists, expenditure of taxpayer funds from China, the European Union, India, Japan, Korea, Russia, and the United States is unprecedented and is therefore difficult to conceive. Deception and fraud are ugly words that nobody in the scientific world wants to be associated with. Nevertheless, over the course of three decades, it happened.
Much like the perpetual motion frauds from a century ago, which employed hidden mechanical devices to supply power, scientists promoting ITER have hidden the reactor’s expected input power through specific wording, omitted facts, undisclosed terminology, and deceit.
“The Dark Side of ITER,” published on June 15, 2020, by Steven B. Krivit, editor of New Energy Times, explains what happened.
36. The Dark Side of ITER was last modified: December 6th, 2020 by sbkrivit
Transmutation, The Inside Story was written by physicist Robin Marshall and self-published on Sept. 12, 2019. The paperback version is 137 pages. (ISBN-10: 107974584X / ISBN-13: 978-1079745849)
Robin Marshall is an emeritus professor of physics from the University of Manchester, recognized science for his research in the field of high-energy physics. Among other awards and honors, he is a Fellow of the Royal Society, was a Fellow of the Institute of Physics, and was awarded the Max Born Medal and Prize by the German Physical Society.
From the back cover: “This is a true story. It is a story of Manchester, discovery and physics, and very little comes truer than that. When the year has a ‘19 in it, you can be sure that Manchester will be at the fore. 1819 was the pinnacle of the ‘19s – Peterloo, when Manchester made sacrifices for the Nation. In 1919, Ernest Rutherford, later Sir, even later Lord, became the planet’s first alchemist.”
I must disclose that this is not an impartial review. In fact, my actions may have precipitated Marshall’s decision to write this book. Before discussing Marshall’s book, some backstory is required for context. In 2014, I was writing my own book, Lost History, which I self-published two years later, in 2016. During research for the book, I identified and described the perpetuation of a 70-year myth that depicted physicist Ernest Rutherford as the world’s first successful alchemist. According to the myth, he performed the experiment which demonstrated the first artificial transmutation of elements, specifically, changing the element nitrogen to oxygen.
In May 2019, I learned that the University of Manchester, in collaboration with the U.K. Institute of Physics History of Physics Group, planned to hold a one-day meeting to celebrate the 100th anniversary of Rutherford’s discovery of the first artificial transmutation of elements. On learning about the meeting, scheduled for June 8, I immediately contacted the organizers and university officials. I informed them that the title and the basis for the meeting were factually incorrect.
According to my investigation, Rutherford’s 1919 papers did not mark his discovery of the first artificial transmutation performed at Manchester. Rather, those papers marked his discovery of the proton, in experiments he performed at Manchester. The credit, I explained to the organizers and university officials, for the first artificial transmutation, actually belonged to Patrick Blackett, when he published, in 1925, experiments he performed at the University of Cambridge.
Before the meeting took place, Marshall reacted adversely to my surprising news. He disagreed strongly with my analysis of the history and my conclusion. Marshall took to Twitter to express himself. He promised his readers that the key speaker for the planned meeting, Rutherford expert John Campbell, was going to show that I was wrong. Marshall imagined that I had intended to shut the centenary down rather than encourage the centenary to mark the proper discovery, that of the proton. Marshall’s response was not unique but it was the most extreme reaction that I had encountered. His reaction added drama to what would have been an otherwise dull story about science history.
Three days before the “Centenary of Transmutation” meeting, Marshall wrote on his Twitter account that he was asked to comment and review my “paper.” (Actually, it was not a journal paper but my news article “University of Manchester to Celebrate Wrong Transmutation Discovery.”) He had submitted his review to an unnamed journal in an attempt to show that I was wrong about the discovery credit. Marshall complained on Twitter that the editor had rejected his review, but he was nonetheless determined to triumph. He posted his entire review, as screenshots, to his Twitter feed with exciting preambles to each page.
The “Centenary of Transmutation” meeting took place as scheduled on June 8, 2019, without any change to the title or agenda. Peter Rowlands, a 30-year member of the U.K. Institute of Physics History of Physics Group, opened the meeting with a 38-second introduction and emphatically asserted that the University of Manchester held the bragging rights for the first artificial nuclear transmutation.
“Welcome, ladies and gentlemen, to this celebration of the centenary of transmutation, which took place in this very department 100 years ago,” Rowlands said.
Sean Freeman, the head of the University of Manchester School of Physics and Astronomy spoke next. I had previously been in communication with Freeman. A year earlier, on June 26, 2018, I had written to Freeman and Martin Schröder, the vice-president and dean for the Faculty of Science and Engineering at Manchester. I told them both that a Web page from the physics department depicted the incorrect version of the transmutation discovery. Schröder wrote back to me the following day and, for the most part, expressed his agreement with my findings and conclusions. He thanked me for bringing the error to their attention and, after two rounds of edits, he and Freeman brought the page much closer to the facts as shown by my investigation. (Their page still contains a minor conflation of the historical events.)
After Rowlands’ introduction, Freeman gave his talk — and contradicted Rowlands. Rutherford expert John Campbell followed Freeman. He too, contradicted Rowlands. Freeman and Rowlands discussed many details about Rutherford’s achievements, but neither of them claimed that Rutherford had performed and discovered the first artificial transmutation. Instead, Freeman and Campbell discussed the correct discovery associated with the centenary: Rutherford’s 1919 discovery of the proton.
Sean Freeman speaking at the “Centenary of Transmutation”
Freeman also told the audience that Blackett, at Cambridge, had shown the transmutation of nitrogen to oxygen. In each of their respective chronological narratives, when Freeman and Campbell arrived at the year 1919, they spoke accurately and precisely about Rutherford’s proton discovery.
Marshall had promised his Twitter followers that Campbell was going to “state more strongly Krivit was wrong.” Instead, Campbell said nothing in his talk about Rutherford transmuting nitrogen to oxygen. Instead, Campbell admitted that he was wrong. He said that he had relied on secondary sources that were to blame for his mistake:
“I just assumed that the people writing about Rutherford who knew him were right, but then I’ve found out they never looked at the article — I assumed — records of the day, and just formed their own guesswork.”
John Campbell speaking at the “Centenary of Transmutation”
In the discussion after Campbell’s talk, the audience had a chance to resolve the incongruity between the advertised purpose of the meeting (Rutherford’s transmutation discovery) and the undisclosed revised purpose of the meeting (Rutherford’s proton discovery). Nearly all the audience discussions centered on transmutation. Campbell repeatedly and accurately responded to the audience that, no, Rutherford never claimed that he had transmuted nitrogen to oxygen. In a separate document, I performed a detailed analysis of the meeting discussion and answered some of the audience questions that Campbell did not answer adequately.
A month later, I responded to Marshall’s Twitter-published review in an open letter. I explained how Marshall had misunderstood a fundamental aspect of Rutherford’s experiments.
Marshall thought that when Rutherford discussed oxygen, that it was in the context of experiments performed with nitrogen gas, and that oxygen was the result of a transmutation from nitrogen. Marshall didn’t understand. Rutherford had performed separate experiments; one experiment used nitrogen gas in the chamber, the other experiment used oxygen gas in the chamber. When Rutherford mentioned oxygen in his papers, he was only referring to the similarities of the particle kinetics of experiments performed in the presence of oxygen to the particle kinetics of experiments performed in the presence of nitrogen.
Marshall wrote and self-published Transmutation, The Inside Story as an attempt to prove that the transmutation discovery belonged to Rutherford. Much of his book is anecdotal and contains ancillary aspects to the history. Only a few pages in the book attempt to provide direct support for Marshall’s thesis.
(Page 56): “Rutherford did have transmutation in mind, but kept quiet about it in public until these papers appeared in 1919. He did mention in a personal letter to Bohr in December 1917 that he was trying to do it and asked Bohr to regard it as private.”
Suffice it to say, Marshall provided no direct quote and no citation. Rutherford said no such thing to Bohr, and had no such intention. The actual quotation from Rutherford’s letter, which is quite well known, is this: “I am also trying to break up the atom by this method – Regard this as private.” In that paragraph, Marshall also associated the word transmutation with his own his own phrase “trying to do it.” But that is an inaccurate conflation. Rutherford’s intention was not to transmute one element to another but to break apart the atom so as to learn its structure and develop support for his satellite model of the atom.
(Page 63): “It is significant that he noticed that what should have been nitrogen behaved like oxygen.”
This is, of course, Marshall’s fundamental misunderstanding of the set of experiments, as I already explained in my open letter.
Lower on the page, Marshall traveled further down the road from fact to falsehood. He displayed an image with two particle tracks. Below the image, he wrote this caption:
(Page 63): “Two alpha particles in a Wilson cloud chamber enter from the left. The upper track was used by Rutherford to identify the stub of the recoil oxygen nucleus.”
Again, Marshall provided no direct quote and no citation. In reality, the image Marshall depicts as Figure 6.3 did not come from any of Rutherford’s four 1919 papers. In fact, there are no images of any particle tracks in in any of Rutherford’s set of four papers. Based on my investigation, there is no evidence that Rutherford identified any residual nucleus from his experiments as oxygen before Blackett’s 1925 publication. This image and caption, which Marshall purports to be the primary evidence for his argument, is a complete fabrication.
Book Review: Transmutation, The Inside Story was last modified: June 12th, 2020 by sbkrivit
Dr. Kathy McCarthy
Director, U.S. ITER Project Office
Oak Ridge National Laboratory
Dear Dr. McCarthy,
Following my second letter to you about the misleading ITER claim on this Web page, ORNL immediately published a press release repeating the same misleading claim, that ITER is designed to produce “500 megawatts of fusion power.”
This claim is misleading, although it is technically valid.
Context is everything, however, and in your public communication to people who are not fusion experts, the claim is inaccurate. The problem with “500 MW of fusion power” is the difference between what it says and what it means.
Fusion experts know that “500 MW of fusion power” accurately states the projected power of the fusion-produced particles in ITER. Crucially, fusion experts also know that this statement does not account for or consider the input power required to operate the reactor.
However, for the general public, “500 MW of fusion power” means that the ITER reactor will produce 500 MW of potentially usable thermal power and that this accounts for the input power required to operate the reactor. But the 500 MW value does not account for the 300 MW of electrical input power required to operate the reactor. With an input of 300 MW, the potentially usable net power, after conversions, will be about zero — if the experiment works as planned.
You are representing an effectively net-zero-power reactor as a 500 MW-producing reactor. Although this type of misrepresentation has been prevalent for at least a decade, international organizations, including the European Commission, EUROfusion, and FuseNet, have recently corrected their ITER power claims. I ask that you correct the ORNL power claim about ITER to make it accurate, as well.
Sincerely,
Steven Krivit
Publisher and Senior Editor, New Energy Times
cc:
Thomas Zacharia, Director, Oak Ridge National Laboratory
Johnny O. Moore, Manager, Oak Ridge National Laboratory Site Office
Martha J. Kass, Division Director, Oak Ridge National Laboratory Site Office
Lynne K Degitz, Senior Communications Specialist, Oak Ridge National Laboratory
Frank Rusco, Director, Natural Resources and Environment (ENERGY), GAO
John Neumann, Director, Science and Technology, GAO
Katherine Siggerud, Managing Director of Congressional Relations, GAO
35. Open Letter to Dr. Kathy McCarthy, Director, U.S. ITER Project Office, Oak Ridge National Laboratory was last modified: December 6th, 2020 by sbkrivit
New Energy Times just learned that the European Commission has silently removed its misleading claim that “ITER will be the first experiment to generate up to 500 million watts (MW) of fusion power.”
The commission has replaced that claim about the outcome of the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor, known as ITER, with one that is accurate and transparent.
The commission now says that the goal of ITER is “to prove the scientific and technological feasibility of fusion as a future energy source.”
Three years ago, the commission said that the goal of ITER was to show that 1) “fusion energy is possible at an industrial scale” and 2) “ITER will be the first experiment to produce significant quantities of fusion energy, considerably more than required to operate the machine.”
After I published the results of my investigation in 2017 showing that the potentially usable power produced by ITER, if all goes according to plan, will be about zero — after accounting for the input power — the commission made an initial correction. It deleted the two prior claims and replaced them with two new claims.
The commission named two goals: 1) “demonstrat[ing] the scientific and technological feasibility of fusion on Earth as a sustainable energy source” and 2) “ITER will be the first experiment to generate up to 500 million watts (MW) of fusion power.”
After 2½ years and more than 20 communications between me and commissioners, commission staff members, and Jean-Claude Juncker, the former president of the European Commission, the commission now understands that ITER is not going to demonstrate fusion on Earth as a sustainable energy source and that it will not generate any practical level of thermal power from fusion. Instead, ITER may prove that fusion may be feasible, as always, as a future energy source.
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European Commission Fusion Web Page Sept. 17, 2017
“The international scientific community is now building ITER to show that fusion energy is possible at an industrial scale. … ITER will be the first experiment to produce significant quantities of fusion energy, considerably more than required to operate the machine.”
European Commission Fusion Web Page April 6, 2018 (changelog) “The international scientific community is now building ITER, which will demonstrate the scientific and technological feasibility of fusion on Earth as a sustainable energy source. … ITER will be the first experiment to generate up to 500 million watts (MW) of fusion power.”
Changes “The international scientific community is now building ITER, to show that fusion energy is possible at an industrial scale. …ITER will be the first experiment to produce significant quantities of fusion energy, considerably more than required to operate the machinewhich will demonstrate the scientific and technological feasibility of fusion on Earth as a sustainable energy source. ITER will be the first experiment to generate up to 500 million watts (MW) of fusion power.”
Changes “The international scientific community is now building ITER which will demonstrate the scientific and technological feasibility of fusion on Earth as a sustainable energy source. ITER will be the first experiment to generate up to 500 million watts (MW) of fusion powerITER is of key importance in the roadmap, as it aims to prove the scientific and technological feasibility of fusion as a future energy source.”
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For two decades, when fusion experts spoke to non-experts about the “500 MW of fusion power” that ITER is designed to produce, they didn’t explain that the 500 MW value did not account for the input power required to operate the machine. This led to the nearly universal misunderstanding about what ITER is expected and designed to do. It led the commission to publish a press release a decade ago saying that “ITER will be capable of generating 500 million watts (MW) of fusion power.” Archive Copy
The poor communications by the fusion experts caused the commission to publish a press release six years ago saying that ITER “will be the first magnetic confined fusion device which will produce more power than put into it (it is expected to provide 10 times more power than put into it).” Archive Copy
Fusion experts informed attendees at the European Commission ITER Industry Day event in 2017 that ITER would produce “500 MW of power from an input of 50 MW — a gain factor of 10.”
The worldwide extent of the misunderstandings caused by the poor communications from fusion experts is difficult to assess. At a minimum, the misunderstandings have affected most journalists who have written about ITER and most members of the public who have read or viewed thier stories. They have affected members of the European Parliament who have read incorrect statements published by staff members of the commission and the European Parliament. (Click here for examples.)
34. European Commission Corrects Misleading ITER Power Claims was last modified: December 6th, 2020 by sbkrivit