Oct 242020
 

Return to ITER Power Facts Main Page

By Steven B. Krivit
Oct. 24, 2020 

New Scientist magazine is the singular best archival tool to examine fusion progress and promises in the early decades of the research field. This is because no other news organization has more consistently chronicled the development of thermonuclear fusion research. New Energy Times examined every issue of New Scientist magazine through 1986, the inception of ITER, the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor. At that time, a broader group of news organizations began paying attention to fusion research, and those news stories are more readily available.

The following excerpts are representative of New Scientist articles that mention fusion research, with a focus on progress and promises.

“Can We Get Power From Nuclear Fusion?” by Tom Margerison, New Scientist, Jan. 24, 1957
“The sun and stars derive their energy from fusing small items to make larger ones. Harwell scientists published this week six reports on their attempt to build a synthetic sun for generating power.”

“Thermonuclear Fusion: The Task and the Triumph,” by Sir George Thomson, New Scientist, Jan. 30, 1958
“The secret of the Harwell success with Zeta (zero energy thermonuclear assembly) is the stabilizing of the current at least partially by another magnetic field supplied by a current in coils outside the torus. … It is clear that there is a long way to go, from 5 million to about 500 million degrees, before one can make a power station out of Zeta. ”

“The Next Stages With Zeta,” by Sir John Cockcroft, New Scientist, Jan. 30, 1958
“In the small controlled nuclear fusion experiments conducted so far, the energy produced is small compared with the energy input. Vastly higher temperatures and new techniques will be required before the stage of commercial application can be reached.

“It has long been the ambition of scientists to emulate the sun by making use of reactions between the light elements to release energy for practical applications. Papers published in Nature (January 25) describe a first stage of experimental work carried out at Harwell, AEI Research Laboratories, Aldermaston, and Los Alamos, USA, with this long-term objective.

“We will have many problems to face in this second stage. New methods may have to be devised to heat the gas to higher temperatures, and new techniques will be required to measure the temperatures. Even if all goes well and we meet no roadblocks, we would still have the further engineering problem of designing and constructing a prototype of a practical and economic thermonuclear power station. This would be stage III, and after that, there would be stage IV, commercial application.”

“What I Saw in Russia,” by Sir John Cockcroft, New Scientist, Dec. 4, 1958
“Soviet scientists are working on many different lines towards controlled fusion. Resources of men, materials and money are ample. Strides in technology generally are due to the great post-war development of scientific education.”

“The Latest Steps Towards Fusion Power,” by Peter Stubbs, New Scientist, May 2, 1963
“Present efforts fall far short of maintaining relatively dense gas at the necessary high temperatures for long enough to obtain a useful power.”

“Time to End the Thermonuclear Confusion,” by Michael Kenward, New Scientist, October 12, 1972
“The United Kingdom Atomic Energy Authority’s Culham laboratory for fusion research and plasma physics has waited too long for a decision on the future of the controlled thermonuclear power program in Britain.”

“Intense Electron Beams — a Fusion Match?” By James Benford and Gregory Benford, New Scientist, November 30, 1972
“With the problems of confining the thermonuclear plasma looking less insuperable, fusion scientists are now tackling some of the other obstacles that stand between them and a commercial fusion reactor. One problem is how to heat up the plasma to a high enough temperature.

“An economical fusion reactor must trap a hot, dense plasma of light nuclei long enough for the nuclei to react. The aim is to sustain the reaction so that more energy is produced by fusion that is used to set up the containment system.”

“Modest Reprieve for U.K. Fusion Research,” by Michael Kenward, New Scientist, March 29, 1973
“After five years in the doldrums, Britain’s fusion researchers were last week given the go-ahead to spend more money and to build a big new machine. But the government’s decision to improve the status of the fusion program is not as progressive as it might seem.

“For a long time, fusion scientists seemed only to be able to discover new drawbacks and reasons for doubting that fusion would ever provide power on earth as it does in the stars.

“Last year, the Atomic Energy Authority set up a panel under the chairmanship of Sir Harry Massey to review the program of research into controlled thermonuclear fusion as a means of generating electricity.

“Until very recently, the magnitude of the plasma physics barriers between existing experiments and an electricity-producing system has seemed so great that no one really paid much attention to reactor problems.”

“America’s Fusion Director,” by Norman Metzger, New Scientist, April 12, 1973
“Dr. Robert Hirsch, at 38 the youngest man to direct the U.S.-controlled thermonuclear research program, adopts a strictly pragmatic approach to the dizzying problems of plasma physics which the program involves.

“The chart gives timetables and interrelationships among fusion projects underway or planned for the future, topped by the now-formal goal of scientific feasibility by 1980-1982.

“The PLT is now designed to be a halfway station on the road to scientific feasibility, proof that a fusion reaction can be thorough enough to provide an excess of extractable energy. However, if the PLT [Princeton Large Torus] performs to its ultimate, there is an outside chance that it may show that fusion really is feasible.

“Hirsch exudes confidence over the prospects for the current fusion program, which is rather remarkable in the light of the tortuous history of the fusion effort, marked as it is by peaks and valleys of optimism and gloom and often to the accompaniment of puzzled growls from Congressmen.”

“Fusion Reactors – the Ultimate Solution?” By Michael Kenward, New Scientist, December 27, 1973
“New technology cannot hope to have more than a minor impact on today’s energy crisis. However, controlled thermonuclear fusion could guarantee our energy supplies from the 21st century onwards. After years of rising and falling fortunes, fusion research is now making its next tentative step forward.”

“Fusion Reactors – the Ultimate Solution?” By Robert Hirsch, quoted by Michael Kenward, New Scientist, December 27, 1973
“At present, the principal program task is to demonstrate that a plasma of light nuclei can be confined at sufficient temperature and density for a long enough period of time to release more energy by means of a controlled thermonuclear fusion process than was required to create the plasma.

“Present estimates indicate that an orderly aggressive program might provide commercial fusion power about the year 2000, so that fusion could then have a significant impact on electrical power production by the year 2020.”

“Power Struggle in Fusion Research,” New Scientist, Feb. 21, 1974
“Clearly, technology will play an increasingly important role in fusion research and development as fusion approaches the marketplace — reactor design will dominate fusion research toward the end of the century. A meeting held over the past three weeks at the U.K. Atomic Energy Authority’s Culham laboratory (the home of fusion research in Britain) underlined this trend in fusion research. As the men who run the program put it: ‘Fusion is no longer a physics program, it is a power program.’ There is an increasing realization that the days of pure plasma physics are numbered.”

“Energy File,” by Christopher Parkes, New Scientist, March 4, 1976
“Last week’s EEC meeting in Brussels of the Council of Research Ministers got nowhere in the search for an acceptable site for the Joint European Torus (JET) – the proposed next step in Euratom’s fusion research program.

“Whereas Euratom’s role has previously been one of ensuring that different countries do not build identical experiments, collaboration now requires that national projects give way to international projects. This is because no country in Europe can afford to build experiments as big as JET.”

“Fusion: The Way Ahead,” by Michael Kenward, New Scientist, August 17, 1978
“Remember Zeta? Well, forget it. This week’s news that inexpensive and inexhaustible energy from seawater is just around the corner may be another instance of newspapers misunderstanding a scientific story. … At Princeton, they have made a truly significant step forward. But they haven’t solved the world’s energy crisis once and for all, and if some snags crop up over the next 30 years or so, we cannot blame the scientists for raising false hopes. If anybody is responsible for that, it is the newspapers whose muddled accounts prove, if nothing else, that there still is room for good old scientific sensationalism of the sort that was common in the 1950s.”

“Fusion Research — The Temperature Rises,” by Michael Kenward, New Scientist, May 24, 1979
“A fascinating scientific challenge that could solve all our energy problems — that is how fusion researchers see their work. Researchers have increasing confidence that the next generation of experiments will answer most of the remaining scientific questions. Then come the engineering difficulties.

“Why are fusion scientists all over the world now confident that, in just a few years’ time, they will be in a position to build a fusion reactor? The easy answer to these questions — and the one you would get from most descriptions of the fusion effort — is to say that bigger and bigger fusion experiments have brought the researchers nearer and nearer to the conditions they need to reach in a reactor.

“Neutrons generated in Zeta turned out to be produced by a process other than fusion. Even now, fusion research still has not reached the stage of proving that a fusion reactor can be built, although over the past decade, confidence has grown that one day soon there will be a thermonuclear equivalent of the Chicago pile.”

“The Challenge of Fusion,” New Scientist, March 12, 1981
 “‘Fusion is very difficult. The promise is infinite, but the chance of being economic is zero.’ So says Dr. Walter Marshall, the new chairman of the United Kingdom Atomic Energy Authority, about the prospects for thermonuclear fusion.”

“Polarization Brings a New Twist to Fusion Research,” by Michael Kenward, New Scientist, September 24, 1981
“Researchers at Princeton University are now working on an experiment that will, later this year, try out a way of polarizing atoms of some of the isotopes of hydrogen.”

“Fluctuating Fortunes for Fusion Forces,” by Michael Kenward, New Scientist, September 24, 1981
“If, as is very likely, experiments finally prove the ‘scientific’ feasibility of fusion in the next few years, there will be plenty of interest in the topic.”

“Cuts Mean the End of £20 Million Fusion Project,” by Michael Kenward, New Scientist, September 24, 1981
“A £20 million experiment in fusion research has been canceled by the U.K. Atomic Energy Authority. The reversed field experiment — RFX — would have meant building a machine to look at new ways of containing the plasma within which fusion occurs. Sixty percent of the cost would have come from other countries. But cuts in the budget for fusion research and the rising cost of Europe’s collaborative fusion venture — JET — have forced the authority to ditch its plan.”

“Tough Time Ahead for Fusion, Too,” New Scientist, Jan. 21, 1982
“Ex-Congressman Mike McCormack told the American Association for the Advancement of Science that ‘the time has come for the U.S. to move into an aggressive program of magnetic fusion engineering development and materials testing.’

“McCormack thinks such a program could be as important scientifically to the U.S. as was the Apollo manned mission to the moon. Its object would be ‘building and successfully operating a magnetic fusion electric power demonstration plant by the year 2000’ at a cost of $20 billion.”

JETs Plasma Fits Fusion to a D,” New Scientist, April 29, 1982
“Over the years, tokamaks have grown, and the conditions within their plasmas have come nearer and nearer to those required for fusion reactors: both JET and TFTR expect to come very close to reactor conditions, if not to reach them.”

“Experts Back All the Runners in the Fusion Race,” by Christopher Joyce, New Scientist, September 9, 1982
“Fusion energy research in the U.S. has reached an awkward stage in its adolescence. The time is fast approaching when it must abandon the freedom to pursue novel notions at will and instead choose a single course toward a workable fusion reactor.

“Congress, in 1980, passed the Magnetic Fusion Energy Engineering Act, which called for a ‘demonstration’ fusion reactor by the end of the century. Plans were laid for a fusion engineering device (FED) halfway to a demonstration reactor. This would cost some $1 billion and would be built by about 1990. It would have been the first big step away from physics, still the focus of current work, toward the technology needed for a commercial reactor. Now, the Reagan administration’s energy advisers say the FED is too expensive and have canceled it.”

“The Shadow of Zeta,” New Scientist, January 20, 1983
“Twenty-five years ago, Zeta was heralded as proof that science had tamed the process that powers the hydrogen bomb — fusion. Cheap electricity would soon be issuing forth from reactors fed by and inexhaustible resource — seawater. It did not work out like that, and the world still awaits that scientific proof. The scientists involved blame the press and its lurid headlines for giving people the wrong impression about Zeta. But if the project’s scientists — and the intellectual giants who ran Britain’s nuclear program at the time — weren’t all that sure about the measurements, why did they call large press conferences and flood the scientific press with detailed descriptions of the work? The answer to these questions lies in the intense international rivalry to be first with fusion, a rivalry that persists to this day. ”

“Fusion Research 25 Years After Zeta,” by R. S. Pease, New Scientist, January 20, 1983
“A quarter of a century ago, the news broke that scientists had come near to taming the hydrogen bomb and turning fusion power into a source of energy for power stations. In the event, the announcement was premature; but fusion researchers have come a long way since then.

“If machines such as JET prove the scientific feasibility of fusion, there will have to be even larger machines if we are to prove fusion’s technical and economic feasibility.

“The International Atomic Energy Agency of the United Nations organizes the INTOR workshops. INTOR stands for International Tokamak Reactor, although most of the work is actually carried out by groups working in their various home laboratories. The leading groups meet Indiana periodically to bring the work together. The INTOR workshop has already produced a first broad proposal, a definition of an envisaged plant and its objectives. INTOR is presently conceived as a 600 MW (thermal) reactor that would run for 10 years, researching and, we hope, demonstrating the practicability of repeated long pulses burning thermonuclear fuel in a tokamak. … INTOR would not produce electricity, that would come later in the so-called demonstration plant.”

“Juggling With Magnetic Doughnuts,” by Michael Kenward, New Scientist, April 21, 1983
“As science gets nearer to proving that thermonuclear fusion is scientifically feasible, concern grows as to the best machine to build.”

“A Fusion of Talents,” by Michael Kenward, New Scientist, June 23, 1983
“Ignition is the stage where a tokamak’s auxiliary heating can be turned off, leaving it to the fusion reactions to produce enough energy to maintain the plasma’s temperature. [Paul-Henri] Rebut believes that JET has a 50 percent chance of achieving ignition. If JET turns out as Rebut intended, it will bring us access to an almost unlimited supply of energy.”

“Pro Fusion and Con Fusion,” by Michael Kenward, New Scientist, Oct. 4, 1984
“After three decades of research, fusion scientists are finally approaching their goal of an almost limitless energy source. But they still don’t understand all that is going on within their experiments. … There is every confidence among fusion scientist that they will fulfill the promise they made three years ago. But it could be that they will finally get their act together, to use a phrase that makes sense for a change, only when the IAEA next brings the world’s fusion community together to plot some more points on the curve of increasing [the parameters]. The fusion researchers could then begin to think about turning all this esoteric science into power stations — a task that should keep them busy for at least another quarter of a century.”

“U.S. May Give Up Independent Fusion Research,” by Christopher Joyce, New Scientist, Nov. 15, 1984
“The United States may be about to give up its race with the Europeans and Japanese to be the first to win energy from magnetic fusion. Its scientists are becoming so disillusioned with progress that they may soon opt for cooperation with their rivals rather than competition.”

“More Cuts for Fusion Research,” by Michael Kenward, New Scientist, Jan. 10, 1985
“Over the next three years, Britain’s budget for research on thermonuclear fusion will fall by around 20 percent. … The reduction in Culham’s budget comes at a time when fusion researchers are finally assembling the experimental evidence that will prove that they can produce energy by fusing the nuclei of hydrogen, to produce heavier nuclei, releasing energy in the process.”

“International Fusion on Fusion Research,” New Scientist, Jan. 30, 1986
“The International [Atomic] Energy Agency has united the U.S., Europe. and Japan. The agreement, signed recently, calls for collaboration between the teams working on the Tokamak Fusion Test Reactor at Princeton, New Jersey, the Joint European Torus, at Culham in Oxfordshire, and JT-60 in Naka-machi, Japan.”

[Ed: Fusion research funding problem solved.]

 

Oct 172020
 
Niek Lopes Cardozo

Niek Lopes Cardozo

Return to ITER Power Facts Main Page

By Steven B. Krivit
Oct. 17, 2020

Promoters of the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor, ITER, have a long history of telling the public how much output power they should expect from this experimental reactor. At the same time, they have a long history of omitting the required input power. Perpetual-motion scams do the same thing, only with mechanical tricks.

Earlier this year, I contacted Niek Lopes Cardozo, one of the fusion scientists who had helped promote ITER. Cardozo is a professor of science and the technology of nuclear fusion in the Applied Physics Department of Eindhoven University of Technology, and he is the interim chair of the science domain of the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research.

Cardozo is the former leader of the Dutch fusion research programme (2001-2009) and served on top-level European fusion governance committees, and he was the vice-chair of the governing board of the ITER European domestic agency known as Fusion for Energy, which was involved in false power claims about ITER. Cardozo was a co-founder of FuseNet, a European educational organization that teaches students about fusion. For at least eight years, FuseNet had published a fundamentally false claim about the promised ITER power production.

ITER is not designed to produce electricity; nor is it designed to produce overall net power. It is designed specifically for a purely scientific outcome: a fusion plasma that produces thermal power at a rate 10 times greater than the rate of thermal power injected into the plasma. This goal, if achieved, will translate to a net-zero output for the overall reactor. Representatives of the fusion community who have spoken about ITER publicly have told the public for three decades that the overall reactor was designed to produce significant net power, that the overall reactor was designed to produce power at a rate 10 times greater than the power the reactor would consume. That’s not what its designed for. If it works, it will produce thermal power at the same rate as it consumes the equivalent rate of electrical power.

In his own communications, Cardozo contributed to many false claims about ITER. He was willing to respond to my e-mails — up to a point.

In his presentation (date unknown) “Fusion: the 7 scientific challenges between us and clean power,” Cardozo displayed two slides saying that ITER is designed for a “tenfold power multiplication.” His slides gave no indication that the power multiplication applied only to the plasma rather than to the overall reactor, thus leading his audience to believe the false idea that the overall ITER reactor was designed for a tenfold power multiplication.

When I asked him to explain this apparent misrepresentation, he said that, when he introduces the “10-fold power multiplication,” he always explains to his audience that he really means “that the fusion power is 10 times the power needed to sustain the plasma.”

Changing Measurement Scales
I found a 2015 slide presentation he had given called “Why We Have Solar Panels But Not Yet Fusion Power.” Cardozo wrote that the net power output of a fusion reactor is not a relevant measure of fusion progress.

It was a peculiar statement because nearly every news story about nuclear fusion for the last 50 years has described the penultimate goal of fusion research as a fusion reactor that produces net power output. On the other hand, a fusion reactor that produces no net power has scientific value but, on a practical level, is useless.

When Cardozo wrote “fusion power level,” he was using a phrase that fusion scientists commonly use – a phrase with a double meaning. Cardozo was not talking about the practical meaning, which is the potentially usable rate of power produced by a fusion power plant. He was talking only about the scientific meaning: the rate of power associated with particles produced by the fusion reactions, which does not account for any of the input power.

But the public doesn’t care about the kinetic energy of fusion particles; for 70 years, the public has been promised and has been waiting for a fusion reactor that creates more energy than it consumes. Cardozo’s assertion that net reactor output power was “not a relevant number” was inconsistent with the real purpose of fusion research, so I asked him what he had in mind. Here’s what he told me:

Fusion has the peculiar property that it has to reach ignition, which in the case of magnetic fusion, basically requires upscaling. For a long time, the input power is simply [going to be] much larger than the fusion power; then [we will] get to a machine size where the two cross, and from there on, [we get to] the net power production size.

A note about ignition: All magnetic fusion reactors require heat to be injected into the reaction chamber to create nuclear fusion reactions. However, fusion scientists believe that, when they eventually build a reactor that has all the right parameters, the fusion reactions inside the reactor will create so much heat that no external heating power will be required. They call this “ignition.”

In his explanation, Cardozo was saying that net reactor output power was irrelevant only because, for the time being, there is no fusion reactor capable of positive net reactor output power. Once a fusion reactor reaches the ignition level and no external heating power is required, Cardozo expected a fusion reactor to have net positive reactor output power. In that case, according to Cardozo, net reactor output power would be relevant. Before ignition, Cardozo expects that net reactor output power will remain negative. After ignition, he expects that net reactor output power will be positive. More simply, Cardozo doesn’t want to use the net reactor output power value now because it gives a negative number.

In the same presentation, Cardozo said that ITER is supposed to produce enough thermal power that, if converted to electricity at a 30% rate of efficiency, would yield 150 megawatts of electric power.

Cardozo’s claim that ITER would hypothetically be able to produce electrical power at the rate of 150 megawatts seemed wrong because Cardozo’s value didn’t account for the 300-megawatt rate of electricity the reactor is expected to consume. I asked him to explain the omission of the required input power, but he did not respond directly to my question. Instead, he told me that in recent years he has been critical about the prospects of fusion as a practical source of energy in a relevant and useful time frame, and he directed me to a journal article he wrote last year.

Volte Face
Cardozo’s article is a radical shift from his earlier outlook. His previous public comments about fusion, like those of so many other fusion scientists, were filled with the same imaginary projections that fusion scientists have been talking about for half a century. His new outlook was based on sobering, thoughtful analysis. He asked, and answered the question, what if ITER works as planned? Then what? Based on what we know of nuclear engineering, what would it take to develop fusion into an energy technology that makes any difference in the world energy mix? How long would it take?

Cardozo concludes that “within the mainstream

     
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scenario – a few [demonstration-type] reactors towards 2060, followed by generations of relatively large reactors — there is no realistic path to an appreciable contribution to the energy mix in the 21st century if economic constraints are applied.”

In his estimation, the first-generation fusion power plants, optimistically offered to the market in the 2070 timeframe, likely will provide an average electric power comparable to what wind power provided in the year 2000. Moreover, he wrote, such fusion power plants would require an upfront investment of hundreds of billions of Euros. Cardozo asked: Who would pay for that? And why? Cardozo wrote that other energy technologies have already provided proof of technical viability at investment levels orders of magnitude lower.

Leaving the Past in the Past
Despite his turnabout, a large part of my work recently has been an attempt to explain the past and how we got where we are now, or at least where we were three years ago, when almost every major fusion organization was publishing false or misleading claims about ITER. I wanted to know whether Cardozo could and would explain his role as a contributor to the widespread false understandings about ITER. I sent him several examples:

  1. Oct. 20, 2006, News Report in Technisch Weekblad, “ITER Has To Keep All Promises”
    In this news report, after speaking with Cardozo, the reporter wrote that “ITER promises to be the first fusion reactor to deliver more power than it needs to run: 500 MW for ten minutes, ten times more than what is put into it.” This was false. If ITER works, it will only be the first fusion reactor to deliver the same amount of power that it consumes.
  2. September 2010, Cardozo’s Abstract for the 9th Liege Conference on Materials for Advanced Power Engineering
    As Cardozo had written in a slide presentation, his abstract for this meeting said that ITER “will demonstrate 10-fold power multiplication at the 500 MW level.” This statement gave the clear but false impression the expected power gain is for the overall reactor and not limited to only the plasma.
  3. April 20, 2009, Press Release About Cardozo’s Chair Appointment
    This press release, which relied on Cardozo as the expert, said the ITER “installation will generate 500 MW of power from nuclear fusion, ten times more than is necessary to operate the reactor.”
  4. Eindhoven University of Technology Web Site
    The Master Science and Technology of Nuclear Fusion Web page at Cardozo’s university says, “ITER will demonstrate 10-fold power multiplication at the 500 MW level.” The press release mentioned above said that Cardozo would be setting up this nuclear fusion master’s program.
  5. FuseNet Association
    Cardozo was the founding chair of the board, from 2010 to 2014. From at least 2011 to 2019, he and his peers told students on the association’s ITER page that “the fusion reactor itself has been designed to produce 500 MW of output power, or ten times the amount of power put in.”

Silence
I didn’t know whether, like some other fusion scientists, Cardozo had believed that ITER would need only 50 megawatts of power to operate. I didn’t know whether he had been given wrong information by his peers or whether he made a mistake.

I sent him another letter, copied to Robert-Jan Smits, the president of Eindhoven University of Technology, and asked Cardozo for an explanation.

Cardozo did not reply.

 

 

 

Oct 102020
 

Return to ITER Power Facts Main Page

Oct. 10, 2020
By Steven B. Krivit

This is a concise, five-page report that explains how the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor, a zero-power experimental nuclear fusion reactor now under construction in France, was misleadingly sold as a 500-megawatt reactor. Download the Report

Bernard Bigot, director-general of the ITER project, testifying before Congress in 2018.

 

 

Oct 032020
 

by Hans Fantel

The cheapest and most plentiful fuel on earth would be water — if you could burn it. That’s no longer a pipe dream. From the way it looks now, we may soon have practical fusion reactors to liberate the atomic forces in seawater. The world would then have a virtually boundless source of energy.

Atomic fusion — the principle basic to the use of seawater as fuel — has been known since the dawn of the atomic age during World War II. But so far, no practical fusion device has been built (unless you consider the hydrogen bomb as practical). But to gigantic research projects — one at Princeton University, the other at the University of Rochester — are finally getting within spitting distance of producing useful energy from fusion reactions. ...

The latest version of the tokamak has been able to reach stellar temperatures, trigger a fusion reaction and sustain it long enough to generate significant amounts of power. So far, the big machine has managed to keep this up for about 20 milliseconds. To become an efficient energy producer, it will have to run much longer than that — about 10 seconds or more for each power burst. But keeping the tokamak going for so long is very tricky task.

The trouble is that no material on Earth can contain the raging stream of stellar stuff inside the tokamak. If the swirling deuterium touches the wall of the metal tube containing it, the deuterium cloud breaks up, cooling to the point where the fusion reaction falters. So the torrent inside the tokamak must race inside the ring-shaped tube without ever touching its walls. It is, therefore, contained in what is called a magnetic bottle — an ultra-strong magnetic field, shaped to hold the deuterium suspended within the doughnut, away from its walls.

Unfortunately, the bottle still leaks. Often, the hot material breaks through the magnetic restraint, cools off instantly, and stops the reaction. That’s the main reason why the tokamak is still just a research tool, rather than a working power source.

But this may change by the late 1980s. A machine almost twice as big as the present tokamak — called the TFTR, the tokamak fusion test reactor — is nearly completed, and its size alone may help solve the problem. …

Dr. Harold P. Furth, director of the tokamak project, believes that it might break even by the mid-1980s. The breakeven point would be reached when a reaction lasts long enough to generate as much energy as is consumed in the heating process.

Publication Date: September, 1982
Source: Popular Mechanics

Oct 022020
 

Self-sustaining fusion reaction “will be achieved within a few years,” researchers say.

by Clifford B. Hicks

The best evidence of progress in this field is not success, but lack of failure. As former Atomic Energy Commission chairman Lewis L Strauss has pointed out: “We think the fact that we have worked with it now for a number of years and have not been able to prove it impossible is a very considerable gauge of its eventual success.”

Dr. Arthur E. Ruark, chief of controlled nuclear research for the AEC, confirms the optimism: “There is general belief in the American laboratories that the ignition temperature, the temperature at which the fusion reaction is self-sustaining, will be achieved within a few years.” …

Scientists in attendance [at the Geneva conference] estimated that sometime within the next 10 or 20 years, the switch will be thrown and the first full-scale, power-producing fusion reactor will go into operation. Even this first crude reactor probably will have a power output comparable to the huge hydroelectric plant at Hoover Dam.

Publication Date: January 1959
Source: Popular Mechanics

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